Orinda, Calif., May 27, 2026 — The City of Orinda announced today that the wildfire evacuation scenarios available on OrindaReady.com have been updated to incorporate ember casting into the City's public-facing Ladris wildfire and evacuation modeling platform.
The updated scenarios, completed in May 2026, reflect enhancements to the City's evacuation planning efforts and integrate ember-cast behavior into the wildfire simulations used to evaluate evacuation timing, traffic congestion, and roadway impacts during wildfire emergencies.
The Ladris evacuation platform combines evacuation modeling with fire behavior modeling developed in coordination with the Moraga-Orinda Fire District. These fire behavior inputs represent the best estimates of the types of wildfire conditions most likely to affect Orinda during Red Flag events. Together, the models help visualize how different wildfire and evacuation conditions could unfold across the community.
As part of the ember casting update, the City revised and streamlined the public scenario library to better reflect the operational constraints and roadway impacts identified through enhanced modeling. Updates include:
- Incorporation of ember-cast and spot-fire behavior into evacuation scenarios
- Adjustments to evacuation assumptions and roadway constraints
- A reduction and refinement of the overall number of public scenarios
- New evacuation waypoints within the models
- Updated scenario naming conventions and a revised public viewer key
The scenarios continue to analyze a variety of evacuation conditions across North Orinda, South Orinda, and Wilder, including different wind conditions, roadway closures, occupancy assumptions, and one- versus two-vehicle-per-household evacuations.
Preparedness depends on continually improving the tools and information available to both emergency planners and the public. By incorporating ember casting into these models, the City is listening to community feedback and strengthening our understanding of how wildfire conditions may impact evacuations, continuing our commitment to transparency and public readiness.
Linda Smith — City Manager, City of OrindaThe public-facing viewer is designed to help residents better understand how wildfire evacuation assumptions may function broadly across the City, while also supporting emergency planning and coordination efforts. Training tutorials on the use and interpretation of the pre-modeled scenarios can be found on the City's YouTube channel.
The City emphasized that the simulations are planning tools intended to model likely evacuation outcomes under specific conditions and are not predictions of exactly how a real-world evacuation will occur. The platform does not provide individualized evacuation routing or instructions during an emergency.
Residents are encouraged to familiarize themselves with the updated scenarios ahead of wildfire season and continue preparing household evacuation plans, emergency supply kits, and emergency notification subscriptions.