Incline Village, Nev. — Aug. 28, 2024 — Today, a first-ever independent Tahoe Basin Wildfire Evacuation Analysis, combining artificial intelligence (AI) and real-life Sierra Nevada wildfire experience, reveals Tahoe workers, residents, and visitors to California and Nevada's iconic Lake Tahoe could face hours-long, potentially life-threatening slow evacuations.
The release of the Placer and Washoe Tahoe North Shore analyses are part of a larger, first-of-its-kind publicly transparent basin-wide evacuation analysis. Commissioned by TahoeCleanAir.org, the models provide hypothetical "no-notice" versus "planned event" evacuation simulations. The models incorporate operational expertise from veteran firefighters and emergency management experts involved in some of the West's most catastrophic wildfires, including the Camp Fire in and around Paradise, California.
Fire experts use the term "no-notice" for an emerging incident that poses a sudden and immediate threat to human life but may still involve evacuation orders. Historically, no-notice evacuations have overwhelmed emergency responder resources and defied the rapid implementation of emergency operation plans.
Based on first-hand knowledge of decades of extreme fire behavior and with AI technology, experts from PyroAnalysis and Ladris conducted over 400 Tahoe-wide evacuation simulations to help provide accurate highway and feeder road capacity limitations. AI evacuation modeling software estimated potential evacuation times based on a variety of road closures that create choke points — bottlenecks that could reasonably be expected during a fast-moving wildfire evacuation in peak summer tourist season, which coincides with peak wildfire season.
Until now, no such publicly transparent, in-depth analysis of Lake Tahoe's limited infrastructure has been provided in connection with Tahoe land use planning and project approvals by any of the five Tahoe-facing counties or the Tahoe Regional Planning Agency (TRPA). Yet TRPA recently approved land use code changes to allow increased building height, density, and coverage, and continues to approve visitor attractions that will materially change the Tahoe environment, increase the total number of people in the basin, and elevate safety threats.
The AI-generated Placer evacuation simulations reveal a nine- to fourteen-plus-hour evacuation time depending on road closure conditions. This is in stark contrast to the 2016 Placer County Environmental Impact Statement, which estimated evacuation time for the study area at 3.7 hours. Washoe Tahoe AI-generated simulations include potential closures of SR28 at Stateline and Sand Harbor resulting in eight- and nine-hour wait times.
Evacuation of the Tahoe basin is of paramount importance. Annual visitation to the Tahoe basin (207,000 acres) now exceeds that of America's most popular National Park, the Great Smoky Mountains, which spans 522,419 acres. One report indicates Tahoe gets as many as 60 million person-trips annually. Many visitors are unaware that Tahoe spans two states, five counties, and multiple communities — they simply think they're "in Tahoe."
The public and land use planners deserve to be aware of potential evacuation outcomes. The carrying capacity in the Tahoe Basin is already beyond strained. This analysis underscores the need for Tahoe policy makers to provide better, more transparent public safety planning. Officials need to take a reality-based approach to land use planning decisions to help avoid issues experienced in other major wildfires.
Doug Flaherty — President, TahoeCleanAir.org; former Fire Combat Battalion ChiefSimulation illustrations and added analysis are available at TahoeCleanAir.org.